Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): April

Copyright (c) 2026 Vérène Niyomana, Patrick Mushitsi

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

The End of Interdependence: Re-assessing Power, Progress, and Peace in a Fragmented World

https://doi.org/10.62810/jssh.v3i2.292
Vérène Niyomana
University of Burundi, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Department of Political Science and International Relations
Patrick Mushitsi
University of Burundi, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Department of Political Science and International Relations

Corresponding Author(s) : Vérène Niyomana

v.niyomana@gmail.com

Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): April

Abstract

This article uses counterfactual analysis to explore a hypothetical world in which states operate under mandatory autarky, completely lacking the economic, security, and social interdependence that define the modern international system. While existing International Relations (IR) scholarship extensively examines the consequences of growing interdependence, it has not systematically theorized the structural and political outcomes of its complete and instantaneous absence. This article aims to show that ending interdependence would not merely revert the system to Westphalian realism but would fundamentally and unexpectedly reshape its core principles. Using a deductive thought experiment to test key IR paradigms, the article examines four structural changes: the shift of power toward complex, autarkic capabilities; the halt in progress as global knowledge resources collapse; the tension of peace into rigid spheres of influence; and an environmental paradox in which local efforts fail to prevent global ecological decline. The article concludes that such a fragmented world would be marked by profound instability, cultural and technological stagnation, and a fragile peace sustained solely by deterrence. This offers a critical perspective for re-evaluating the advantages and vulnerabilities of the current global order, warning that even the perceived failures of interdependence may be preferable to any viable autarkic alternative

Keywords

Autarky Interdependence Peace Power Progress
Niyomana, V., & Mushitsi, P. (2026). The End of Interdependence: Re-assessing Power, Progress, and Peace in a Fragmented World . Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 3(2), 318–338. https://doi.org/10.62810/jssh.v3i2.292
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
BibTeX
References
  1. Acton, J. M. (2023). Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age. Carnegie
  2. Endowment for International Peace.
  3. Adler, E., & Barnett, M. (Eds.). (1998). Security Communities. Cambridge University Press.
  4. Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?
  5. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
  6. Allison, G. (2020). The New Spheres of Influence. Foreign Affairs. Link
  7. Anderson, B. (1983). Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of
  8. Nationalism. Verso.
  9. Appadurai, A. (1996). Modernity at Large: Cultural Dimensions of Globalisation. University of
  10. Minnesota Press.
  11. Barber, B. R. (1995). Jihad vs. McWorld. Times Books.
  12. Beck, U. (2008). World at risk. Development and Society, 37(1), 1–21.
  13. Benedick, R. E. (1998). Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet. Harvard
  14. University Press.
  15. Biermann, F. (2014). Earth System Governance: World Politics in the Anthropocene. MIT Press.
  16. Borrelle, S. B., Ringma, J., Law, K. L., Monnahan, C. C., Lebreton, L., McGivern, A., Murphy, E.,
  17. Jambeck, J., Leonard, G. H., Hilleary, M. A., Eriksen, M., Possingham, H. P., De Frond,
  18. H., Gerber, L. R., Polidoro, B., Tahir, A., Bernard, M., Mallos, N., Barnes, M., & Rochman, C. M. (2020). Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution. Science, 369(6510), 1515–1518. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3656
  19. Canan, P., Reichman, N. (2017). Ozone Connections: Expert Networks in Global
  20. Environmental Governance. Routledge.
  21. Charap, S., & Colton, T. J. (2017). Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest
  22. for Post-Soviet Eurasia. Routledge.
  23. Chomsky, Noam. (2006). Failed states: the abuse of power and the assault on democracy. New
  24. York : Metropolitan Books
  25. Collins, F. S., Morgan, M., & Patrinos, A. (2003). The Human Genome Project: lessons from
  26. large-scale biology. Science (New York, N.Y.), 300(5617), 286–290. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1084564
  27. Daniel W. Drezner, Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice,
  28. International Studies Review, Volume 13, Issue 1, March 2011, Pages 96–108, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.01001.x
  29. Dauvergne, P. (2016). Environmentalism of the Rich. MIT Press.
  30. Evgeny, M. (2011). The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom. New York:
  31. PublicAffairs.
  32. Falkner, R. (2016). The Paris Agreement and the new logic of international climate politics.
  33. International Affairs, 92(5), 1107-1125.
  34. Fearon, J. D. (1991). Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science. World
  35. Politics, *43*(2), 169–195.
  36. Ferguson, N. (2011). Civilisation: The West and the Rest. The Penguin Press.
  37. George, A. L., & Bennett, A. (2005). Case studies and theory development in the social sciences.
  38. MIT Press.
  39. Gerring, J. (2012). Social science methodology: A unified framework (2nd ed.). Cambridge
  40. University Press.
  41. Gholz, E. (2022). The Defense Industrial Base: A Primer. In The Oxford Handbook of
  42. International Security.
  43. Gilpin, R. (1981). War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge University Press.
  44. Goldstein, J. L., Rivers, D., & Tomz, M. (2007). Institutions in international relations:
  45. Understanding the effects of the GATT and the WTO on world trade. International Organization, 61(1), 37–67. https://doi:10.1017/S0020818307070014
  46. Grieco, J. M. (1988). Anarchy and the limits of cooperation: a realist critique of the newest
  47. liberal institutionalism. International Organization, 42(3), 485–507. https://doi:10.1017/S0020818300027715
  48. Hardin, G. (1968). The Tragedy of the Commons. Science, *162*(3859), 1243–1248. https://DOI: 10.1126/science.162.3859.1243
  49. Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The End of the Liberal International Order? International Affairs,
  50. *94*(1), 7–23. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix241
  51. Jackson, P. T. (2011). The conduct of inquiry in international relations: Philosophy of science
  52. and its implications for the study of world politics. Routledge.
  53. Jasanoff, S. (2004). States of Knowledge: The Co-Production of Science and Social Order.
  54. Routledge. Keck, M. E., & Sikkink, K. (1998). Activists Beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International
  55. Politics. Cornell University Press.
  56. Keohane, R. O. (1984). After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political
  57. Economy. Princeton University Press.
  58. Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition.
  59. Little, Brown.
  60. Kirshner, J. (1995). Currency and Coercion: The Political Economy of International Monetary
  61. Power. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv173f2mk
  62. Kissinger, H. (2014). World Order. Penguin Press. Lakatos, I. (1978). The methodology of
  63. scientific research programmes. Cambridge UniversityPress.
  64. Levy, J. S. (2015). Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis. Security Studies,
  65. (3), 378–402. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1070602
  66. Logsdon, J. M. (2019). Ronald Reagan and the Space Frontier. Palgrave Macmillan.
  67. Mackinder, H. J. (1904). The Geographical Pivot of History. The Geographical Journal, 23(4),
  68. –437. https://doi.org/10.2307/1775498.
  69. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. W.W. Norton & Company.
  70. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (Updated Edition). W.W.
  71. Norton & Company.
  72. Merton, R. K. (1965). On the Shoulders of Giants: A Shandean Postscript. The Free Press.
  73. Modelski, G. (1987). Long Cycles in World Politics. University of Washington Press.
  74. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). (1949). The North Atlantic Treaty. Washington,
  75. D.C.: NATO. Article 5.
  76. Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Viking.
  77. Popper, K. (1945). The Open Society and Its Enemies. Routledge.
  78. Ricardo, D. (1817). On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. John Murray.
  79. Robert E. Osgood (1957). Limited War: The Challenge to American Strategy. Chicago:
  80. University of Chicago Press.
  81. Rodrik, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World
  82. Economy. W.W. Norton.
  83. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy,
  84. *98*(5), S71–S102.
  85. Rosecrance, R. (1987). The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern
  86. World. Basic Books.
  87. Rynning, S. (2022). NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a history of the world’s most powerful
  88. alliance. Yale University Press.
  89. Shapiro, J. (2022). The Illusion of Geopolitics: The Enduring Power of the Global Supply Chain.
  90. Foreign Affairs.
  91. Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R.,
  92. Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., Folke, C., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Mace, G. M., Persson, L. M., Ramanathan, V., Reyers, B., & Sörlin, S. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223), 1259855. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855
  93. Strange, S. (1988). States and Markets. Pinter Publishers.
  94. Tetlock, P. E., & Lebow, R. N. (2001). Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive
  95. Styles and Historical Reasoning. American Political Science Review, 95(4), 829–843. https://doi:10.1017/S0003055400400043
  96. Vernon, R. (1971). Sovereignty at Bay: The Multinational Spread of US Enterprises. Basic
  97. Books.
  98. Walt, S. M. (1992). Revolution and War. World Politics, 44(3), 321–368. https://doi:10.2307/2010542
  99. Walt, S. M. (2009). Alliances in a Unipolar World. World Politics, 61(1), 86–120.
  100. https://doi:10.1017/S0043887109000045
  101. Walt, S. M. (2023). The End of the American Era. Foreign Policy.
  102. Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. McGraw-Hill.
  103. Wendt, A. (1999). Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge University Press.
  104. Wolfers, A. (1951). The Pole of Power and the Pole of Indifference. World Politics, 4(1), 39–
  105. https://doi.org/10.2307/2008900
  106. Ziman, J. M. (1968). Public Knowledge: An Essay Concerning the Social Dimension of Science.
  107. Cambridge University Press.
  108. Zittrain, J. (2008). The Future of the Internet—And How to Stop It. Yale University Press.
Read More
Author biographies is not available.
Received 2026-02-26
Accepted 2026-04-28
Published 2026-04-30
Download
PDF
Statistic
Read Counter : 1 Download : 0