Copyright (c) 2025 Nisar Ahmad Arghandwal, Zmarai Fana, Attal Barai, Wahidullah Yaqubi

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Exploring the Influencing Factors of Rural-to-Urban Migration in Kandahar from 2001 to 2021
Corresponding Author(s) : Nisar Ahmad Arghandwal
Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities,
Vol. 2 No. 4 (2025): October
Abstract
Rural-to-urban migration is the movement of people from rural areas to urban areas in search of improved living conditions, employment opportunities, education, healthcare, and other services. The study draws on the push-pull migration theory and related literature to establish a conceptual framework for understanding population movements driven by structural challenges. This research starts with an introduction to the rural-to-urban migration in Afghanistan particularly the last two decades. Despite increased rural-to-urban migration in Kandahar between 2001 and 2021, there remains a significant research gap in understanding the specific socio-political, economic, and security-related factors that uniquely influenced this trend within the regional context. This quantitative research is based on primary information collected through a survey of 449 families in 15 districts of Kandahar City who urbanized from 2001 to 2021. The study is conducted in a quantitative research format and the data analysis is performed through SPSS software. Following this, the analysis demonstrates how the rapid rural migration to urban centers in Kandahar, southern Afghanistan is attributed to several factors, particularly conflict (42.00%) unemployment (34.90%), and drought (10.2%). More than half of the respondents preferred to settle permanently in Kandahar City instead of moving back to their villages. So, the findings imply that sustainable urban planning and targeted rural development policies are essential to address the long-term needs of displaced populations in Kandahar, as migration is increasingly driven by chronic structural challenges rather than temporary conflict.
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- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), (2005a). Moving out of Poverty: Migration Insights from Rural Afghanistan. Link
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), (2005b). Bound for the city: A study of rural to urban labour migration in Afghanistan. relief. Link
- Akbary, M. F., Taqaddausi, M. T., & Marefat, M. B. (2023). Causes of Internal Migration in Afghanistan: The Case of Kabul City. Sprin Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(01), 69–77. https://doi.org/10.55559/sjahss.v2i01.78 DOI: https://doi.org/10.55559/sjahss.v2i01.78
- Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478(7370), 447–449. https://doi.org/10.1038/478477a DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/478477a
- Brogger, D. (2019). Urban diaspora space: Rural–urban migration and the production of unequal urban spaces, Geoforum, 102, 97-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.04.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.04.003
- Brueckner, J. K., & Lall, S. V. (2015). Cities in developing countries: fueled by rural–urban migration, lacking in tenure security, and short of affordable housing. Handbook of regional and urban economics, 5, 1399-1455.Chiovelli, G., & Koettl, J. (2019). Understanding Rural-Urban Migration Patterns in Afghanistan. The Journal of Development Studies, 55(2), 339-358. https://doi:10.1080/00220388.2018.1459689 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-59531-7.00021-1
- Chen, J. (2019). Economic incentives and settlement intentions of rural migrants in China. Journal of Rural Studies, 68, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.12.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.12.004
- Fan, C. (2022). Rural-Urban Migration, Oxford Bibliographies. https://doi. 10.1093/OBO/9780190922481-0057
- Food and Agriculture Organization, (FAO). (2016). Climate change and migration: A global overview. Retrieved from Link
- Global Data Lab, (2021). Average Household Size. Link
- Global Report on Internal Displacement GRID. (2019). Afghanistan: Drought Displaced as many as Conflict. Link
- Guresci, E. (2022). Agricultural Factors as the Root Cause of Rural Migration from a Global Perspective, Cuadernos de Desarrollo Rural, 19, Link DOI: https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cdr19.afrc
- International Displacement Monitoring Center, (IDMC). (2020). Afghanistan: Country Information. Retrieved 03 09, 2023, from Link
- International Organization for Migration. (2024). Migratory patterns and livelihood in Afghanistan: Structural drivers and impacts. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration. Retrieved from https://www.iom.int/.
- International Organization for Migration, (IOM). (2022). People on the Move in a Changing Climate – Linking Policy, Evidence and Action. IOM, Geneva. Link
- International Organization for Migration, (2012). Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Migration. Link
- Jamil A, & Mohyuddin A. (2015). Rural urban migration for education. (A case study of district Bahawalpur, Pakistan). Sci Int (Lahore), 27, 4819-24. Link
- Kafle, K., Benfica, R., & Winters, P. (2020). Does relative deprivation induce migration? Evidence from sub Saharan Africa. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Retrieved from https://www.iwmi.org/blogs/research shows reducing local income inequality may slow rural urban migration DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ajae.12007
- Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
- Liao, L, & Wang, C. (2019). Urban amenity and settlement intentions of rural–urban migrants in China. PLoS ONE 14(5). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215868 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215868
- MacLeod, E. (June 23, 2008). “Displacement and Security in Afghanistan,” seminar hosted by the Brookings Institution, University of Bern. Link
- Majidi, B. N. (2011). Urban Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons in Afghanistan. Middle East Institute, Washington. 33(33), 1-13. Link
- Malik, A. S. (2015). Rural–urban migration: Socio cultural changes in Pakistan—Preventive measures taken by government and civil society to control it. The Professional Medical Journal, 22(6), 674–682. https://doi.org/10.29309/TPMJ/2015.22.06.1230 DOI: https://doi.org/10.29309/TPMJ/2015.22.06.1230
- Mitra, A. & Murayama, M. (2009), Rural to Urban Migration: A District‐Level Analysis for India. International Journal of Migration, Health and Social Care, 5(2), pp. 35-52. https://doi.org/10.1108/17479894200900011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17479894200900011
- Moses, L. A. B., Guogping, X., & John, L. C. L. (2017, August). Causes and consequences of rural-urban migration: The case of Juba Metropolitan, Republic of South Sudan. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 81, No. 1, p. 012130). IOP Publishing. https://doi.10.1088/1755-1315/81/1/012130 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/81/1/012130
- Nguyen, L. D., Raabe, K., & Grote, U. (2015). Rural–Urban Migration, Household Vulnerability, and Welfare in Vietnam, World Development, 71, 79-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.11.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.11.002
- Niva, V. (2023). World's human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(6), 732–740. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4
- Østby, G. (2016). Rural–urban migration, inequality and urban social disorder: Evidence from African and Asian cities. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 33(5), 491–515. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215581315 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215581315
- Rakotonirina, J. D. & Cheng, J. (2015). Research on the Impacts of Rural-to-Urban Migration on Demographic Characteristics Regarding Economic Development in Madagascar, American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 5, 335-350. https://doi.10.4236/ajibm.2015.56034 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2015.56034
- Rostamalizadeh, V. (2018). Push and pull factors of rural areas and their impact on the retention or migration tendency among rural youth in Hashtrood and Osku counties. Journal of Rural Development, 9(4), 609–625. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrd.2018.65564
- Selod, H. & Shilpi, F. (2021). Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103713 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103713
- Shamshad. (2012). Rural to Urban Migration: Remedies to Control. Golden Research Thoughts. 2. 40-45. Link
- United Nations Development Program, (UNDP). (2017). Afghanistan Human Development Report 2017. Retrieved from Link
- UN-Habitat, (2014). Afghanistan’s Urban Future. Link
- United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (UNHCR). (2022). Flat External Update: Afghanistan Situation #14. UNHCR Regional Bureau for Asia and Pacific. relief. Link
- United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (UNHCR). (2016). Fragility and population movement in Afghanistan. Operational Data Portal. Link
- West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). (2023, June 29). Experts call on the government to examine climate change as a cause of rural urban migration. WASCAL. Link
- World Bank. (2011). Climate change, migration, and adaptation in the MENA region. Retrieved from Link
- Worldostats. (2024). Urbanization rate by country (2020–2025). Link
References
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), (2005a). Moving out of Poverty: Migration Insights from Rural Afghanistan. Link
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), (2005b). Bound for the city: A study of rural to urban labour migration in Afghanistan. relief. Link
Akbary, M. F., Taqaddausi, M. T., & Marefat, M. B. (2023). Causes of Internal Migration in Afghanistan: The Case of Kabul City. Sprin Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(01), 69–77. https://doi.org/10.55559/sjahss.v2i01.78 DOI: https://doi.org/10.55559/sjahss.v2i01.78
Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478(7370), 447–449. https://doi.org/10.1038/478477a DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/478477a
Brogger, D. (2019). Urban diaspora space: Rural–urban migration and the production of unequal urban spaces, Geoforum, 102, 97-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.04.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.04.003
Brueckner, J. K., & Lall, S. V. (2015). Cities in developing countries: fueled by rural–urban migration, lacking in tenure security, and short of affordable housing. Handbook of regional and urban economics, 5, 1399-1455.Chiovelli, G., & Koettl, J. (2019). Understanding Rural-Urban Migration Patterns in Afghanistan. The Journal of Development Studies, 55(2), 339-358. https://doi:10.1080/00220388.2018.1459689 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-59531-7.00021-1
Chen, J. (2019). Economic incentives and settlement intentions of rural migrants in China. Journal of Rural Studies, 68, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.12.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.12.004
Fan, C. (2022). Rural-Urban Migration, Oxford Bibliographies. https://doi. 10.1093/OBO/9780190922481-0057
Food and Agriculture Organization, (FAO). (2016). Climate change and migration: A global overview. Retrieved from Link
Global Data Lab, (2021). Average Household Size. Link
Global Report on Internal Displacement GRID. (2019). Afghanistan: Drought Displaced as many as Conflict. Link
Guresci, E. (2022). Agricultural Factors as the Root Cause of Rural Migration from a Global Perspective, Cuadernos de Desarrollo Rural, 19, Link DOI: https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cdr19.afrc
International Displacement Monitoring Center, (IDMC). (2020). Afghanistan: Country Information. Retrieved 03 09, 2023, from Link
International Organization for Migration. (2024). Migratory patterns and livelihood in Afghanistan: Structural drivers and impacts. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration. Retrieved from https://www.iom.int/.
International Organization for Migration, (IOM). (2022). People on the Move in a Changing Climate – Linking Policy, Evidence and Action. IOM, Geneva. Link
International Organization for Migration, (2012). Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Migration. Link
Jamil A, & Mohyuddin A. (2015). Rural urban migration for education. (A case study of district Bahawalpur, Pakistan). Sci Int (Lahore), 27, 4819-24. Link
Kafle, K., Benfica, R., & Winters, P. (2020). Does relative deprivation induce migration? Evidence from sub Saharan Africa. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Retrieved from https://www.iwmi.org/blogs/research shows reducing local income inequality may slow rural urban migration DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ajae.12007
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Liao, L, & Wang, C. (2019). Urban amenity and settlement intentions of rural–urban migrants in China. PLoS ONE 14(5). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215868 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215868
MacLeod, E. (June 23, 2008). “Displacement and Security in Afghanistan,” seminar hosted by the Brookings Institution, University of Bern. Link
Majidi, B. N. (2011). Urban Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons in Afghanistan. Middle East Institute, Washington. 33(33), 1-13. Link
Malik, A. S. (2015). Rural–urban migration: Socio cultural changes in Pakistan—Preventive measures taken by government and civil society to control it. The Professional Medical Journal, 22(6), 674–682. https://doi.org/10.29309/TPMJ/2015.22.06.1230 DOI: https://doi.org/10.29309/TPMJ/2015.22.06.1230
Mitra, A. & Murayama, M. (2009), Rural to Urban Migration: A District‐Level Analysis for India. International Journal of Migration, Health and Social Care, 5(2), pp. 35-52. https://doi.org/10.1108/17479894200900011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17479894200900011
Moses, L. A. B., Guogping, X., & John, L. C. L. (2017, August). Causes and consequences of rural-urban migration: The case of Juba Metropolitan, Republic of South Sudan. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 81, No. 1, p. 012130). IOP Publishing. https://doi.10.1088/1755-1315/81/1/012130 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/81/1/012130
Nguyen, L. D., Raabe, K., & Grote, U. (2015). Rural–Urban Migration, Household Vulnerability, and Welfare in Vietnam, World Development, 71, 79-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.11.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.11.002
Niva, V. (2023). World's human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(6), 732–740. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4
Østby, G. (2016). Rural–urban migration, inequality and urban social disorder: Evidence from African and Asian cities. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 33(5), 491–515. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215581315 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215581315
Rakotonirina, J. D. & Cheng, J. (2015). Research on the Impacts of Rural-to-Urban Migration on Demographic Characteristics Regarding Economic Development in Madagascar, American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 5, 335-350. https://doi.10.4236/ajibm.2015.56034 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2015.56034
Rostamalizadeh, V. (2018). Push and pull factors of rural areas and their impact on the retention or migration tendency among rural youth in Hashtrood and Osku counties. Journal of Rural Development, 9(4), 609–625. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrd.2018.65564
Selod, H. & Shilpi, F. (2021). Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103713 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103713
Shamshad. (2012). Rural to Urban Migration: Remedies to Control. Golden Research Thoughts. 2. 40-45. Link
United Nations Development Program, (UNDP). (2017). Afghanistan Human Development Report 2017. Retrieved from Link
UN-Habitat, (2014). Afghanistan’s Urban Future. Link
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (UNHCR). (2022). Flat External Update: Afghanistan Situation #14. UNHCR Regional Bureau for Asia and Pacific. relief. Link
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (UNHCR). (2016). Fragility and population movement in Afghanistan. Operational Data Portal. Link
West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). (2023, June 29). Experts call on the government to examine climate change as a cause of rural urban migration. WASCAL. Link
World Bank. (2011). Climate change, migration, and adaptation in the MENA region. Retrieved from Link
Worldostats. (2024). Urbanization rate by country (2020–2025). Link
Accepted 2025-10-25
Published 2025-10-31