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Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): April

Copyright (c) 2026 Karimullah Mohammadi, Mohammad Mahfoz Faqiri

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Dynamic Relationship Analysis between Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Afghanistan: An ARDL Model Approach

https://doi.org/10.62810/jssh.v3i2.183
Karimullah Mohammadi
Department of Business Administration, Economic Faculty, Baghlan University, Afghanistan
Mohammad Mahfoz Faqiri
Department of Business Administration, Economic Faculty, Parwan University, Afghanistan

Corresponding Author(s) : Karimullah Mohammadi

mohammadik2023@gmail.com

Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): April

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the interrelationship among foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, imports, and economic growth in Afghanistan during the period 2002–2023. To achieve this objective, annual time series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model were employed. The estimation results indicate that the negative and statistically significant coefficient of the error correction term (-0.2694) reflects an adjustment speed of approximately 27 percent of short-term deviations in gross domestic product (GDP) toward long-term equilibrium in each period, confirming the existence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables. In the short run, exports exert a negative and significant effect on economic growth, whereas imports demonstrate a positive and significant influence. In the long run, FDI with a positive and significant coefficient (0.1775) and imports with a positive and significant coefficient (0.012137) play a crucial role in enhancing economic growth, while exports show no significant effect. A comparison of these findings with previous studies reveals both similarities and differences, largely attributable to Afghanistan’s institutional, structural, and security conditions. The results highlight that targeted attraction of foreign direct investment, facilitation of capital goods imports, and structural reforms in the export sector can contribute to sustainable economic growth in Afghanistan.

Keywords

Afghanistan ARDL Model Economic Growth Economic Policy Foreign Direct Imports & Exports Investment
Mohammadi, K., & Faqiri, M. M. (2026). Dynamic Relationship Analysis between Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Afghanistan: An ARDL Model Approach. Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 3(2), 497–515. https://doi.org/10.62810/jssh.v3i2.183
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Author biographies is not available.
Received 2025-09-23
Accepted 2026-04-26
Published 2026-04-30
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