Copyright (c) 2026 Zainullah Sadeqi, Mahammad Kamran Noori
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Analysis of the Impact of the HDI on GDP in Afghanistan (2000- 2022)
Corresponding Author(s) : Zainullah Sadeqi
Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities,
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): January
Abstract
This study explores the impact of the Human Development Index (HDI) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Afghanistan over the period 2000–2022. The topic addresses how improvements in human development—particularly in education, health, and living standards—affect the nation’s economic performance. The main goals of the research are to examine the overall effect of HDI on GDP and to analyze the relationships between GDP and other key factors, including total population, unemployment rate, and mean years of schooling. Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), with HDI data specifically collected from the official UNDP Human Development Reports. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study investigates both short-run and long-run interactions among the variables. The findings reveal that HDI has a significant and positive impact on GDP, suggesting that improvements in human development substantially enhance economic productivity. Furthermore, population growth and higher education levels positively affect GDP, while unemployment negatively affects it. The results confirm a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables under study. In conclusion, the research emphasizes that human development is not merely an outcome of economic growth but also a critical driver of it. The study recommends that Afghan policymakers prioritize strengthening education, healthcare, and employment generation as strategic goals to promote sustainable, inclusive economic development.
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- . Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson Education.
- United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (1990). Human development report 1990: Concept and measurement of human development. Oxford University Press.
- United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2010). Human development report 2010 – The real wealth of nations: Pathways to human development. UNDP. https://hdr.undp.org
- Klugman, J., Rodríguez, F., & Choi, H. J. (2011). The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 9(2), 249-288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9178-z DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9178-z
- Mahlberg, B., & Obersteiner, M. (2001). Remeasuring the HDI by data envelopement analysis. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/6455 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1999372
- Nathan, H. S. K., Mishra, S., & Reddy, B. S. (2008). An alternative approach to measure HDI. Mumbai, INDIA: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), 1-23. http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2008-001.pdf
- Sagar, A. D., & Najam, A. (1998). The human development index: a critical review. Ecological economics, 25(3), 249-264. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00168-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00168-7
- Anto, M. B. (2011). Introducing an Islamic human development index (I-HDI) to measure development in OIC countries. Islamic Economic Studies, 19(2). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3158957
- Ranis, G., Stewart, F., & Samman, E. (2006). Human development: beyond the human development index. Journal of Human Development, 7(3), 323-358. https://doi.org/10.1080/14649880600815917 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14649880600815917
- Bray, F., Jemal, A., Grey, N., Ferlay, J., & Forman, D. (2012). Global cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008–2030): a population-based study. The lancet oncology, 13(8), 790-801. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70211-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70211-5
References
. Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson Education.
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (1990). Human development report 1990: Concept and measurement of human development. Oxford University Press.
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2010). Human development report 2010 – The real wealth of nations: Pathways to human development. UNDP. https://hdr.undp.org
Klugman, J., Rodríguez, F., & Choi, H. J. (2011). The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 9(2), 249-288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9178-z DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9178-z
Mahlberg, B., & Obersteiner, M. (2001). Remeasuring the HDI by data envelopement analysis. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/6455 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1999372
Nathan, H. S. K., Mishra, S., & Reddy, B. S. (2008). An alternative approach to measure HDI. Mumbai, INDIA: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), 1-23. http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2008-001.pdf
Sagar, A. D., & Najam, A. (1998). The human development index: a critical review. Ecological economics, 25(3), 249-264. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00168-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00168-7
Anto, M. B. (2011). Introducing an Islamic human development index (I-HDI) to measure development in OIC countries. Islamic Economic Studies, 19(2). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3158957
Ranis, G., Stewart, F., & Samman, E. (2006). Human development: beyond the human development index. Journal of Human Development, 7(3), 323-358. https://doi.org/10.1080/14649880600815917 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14649880600815917
Bray, F., Jemal, A., Grey, N., Ferlay, J., & Forman, D. (2012). Global cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008–2030): a population-based study. The lancet oncology, 13(8), 790-801. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70211-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70211-5
Accepted 2026-01-26
Published 2026-01-31