Copyright (c) 2025 Abdul Farooq Bahadari

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Change in the Balance of Power in the International System
Corresponding Author(s) : Abdul Farooq Bahadari
Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities,
Vol. 2 No. 4 (2025): October
Abstract
From a historical perspective, it can be seen that the balance of power has been one of the most important issues in the international system. Maintaining or changing the balance of power has always been done by a great power or a group of great powers, which has been the reason for an important international event. In this regard, the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has also caused a global confrontation at the level of the international system, shows one of the most important geopolitical developments of the 21st century. Except for the literature that has been able to predict the change, there is no such thing. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the relationship between the war in Ukraine and the change in the balance of power in the international system. This study, with a causal approach, combines library data and empirical observations and has reached the conclusion that: Russia and China and their allies on one side and Europe and America on the other have strengthened their alliances and moved towards a bipolar or multipolar system. While it is evident that the unipolar system is eroding, it is not yet clear whether the system being formed will be bipolar or multipolar. Since changes in the international system affect the capabilities of states in the international system, the importance and effectiveness of this research lies in the fact that it can provide a basis for effective policymaking in the foreign policy of countries in a situation where the world is transitioning from unipolar to multipolar.
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- Acharya, A. (2020). The end of the American world order (A. Seifi, Trans.). Tehran: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Publications.
- Aqeli, M., & Tisheyar, M. (2024). Internal factors of the fourth collapse in Afghanistan. Quarterly Journal of West Asia, 2(1), 32–66. https://doi.org/10.22034/wasj.2024.433325.1032 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/10648046231217790
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- Dehghani-Firozabadi, S. (2017). Principles of international relations 1. Tehran: Samt Publisher.
- Dunn, T., & Brian, C. S. (2013). Realism. In John Bliss & Steve Smith, The globalization of politics: International relations in the modern era (pp. 264–319). Tehran: Abrar Moeser Cultural Institute of International Studies and research.
- Edinger, H. (2022). Offensive ideas: Structural realism, classical realism and Putin’s war on Ukraine. International Affairs, 98(6), 1873–1893. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac217 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac217
- Fukuyama, F. (2006). The end of history and the last man. New York: Macmillan Press.
- Firouzabadi, S.J. (2017). Principles and Foundations of International Relations, Tehran: Samt Publications.
- Ghimire, B. (2023). War in Ukraine and its impact on South Asia. New Delhi: Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.
- Kapitonenko, M. (2024). How the Russian-Ukrainian war is transforming. Actual Problems of International Relations, 1(158). https://doi.org/10.17721/apmv.2024.158.1.26-35 DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/apmv.2024.158.1.26-35
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- Layne, C. (1993). The unipolar illusion: Why new great powers will rise. International Security, 17(4), 5–51. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2539020
- Lo, B., & Has, L. (2024). Between aspiration and reality: Russia in the world (dis)order. Paris: DGRIS (Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy), Ministry of the Armed Forces, under “Russia, Eastern Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asia Observatory (IFRI).”
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- Noori A. (2022). Russia and the changing international order: Approach and Practice. Quarterly Journal of World Politics, 11(4), 7–36. https://10.22124/wp.2022.22997.3081
- Putin, V. (2014a). Address by the President of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol. Crimea Republic. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603
- Putin, V. (2023). Intervention in the plenary session of the 20th anniversary meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club. Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru
- Sami-Esfahani, A., & Farahmand, S. (2022). Explaining why and how the Russia-Ukraine war was formed based on the theory of “balance of threat.” Quarterly Journal of International Relations Research, 12(46), 101–128. http://10.22034/irr.2022.352245.2231
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- Simbar, R., & Salehian, T. (2017). Developments in the international system after the Cold War and the new diversity of the balance of power. Bi-Quarterly Journal of Politics and International Relations, 1(1), 33–51. https://doi.org/10.22080/jpir.2017.1691
- Stępniewski, T. (2024). The impact of the war with Russia on domestic politics in Ukraine. Polish Political Science Yearbook, 53(3), 131–138. https://doi.org/10.15804/ppsy202433 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15804/ppsy202433
- Turhan, O. A. (2023). The rationale behind the Russian invasion of Ukraine: All-or-nothing? Eastern Journal of European Studies, 14(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2023-0209 DOI: https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2023-0209
- U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. (2025). China’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-position-russias-invasion-ukraine
- U.S. Department of State. (2025). U.S. security cooperation with Ukraine. https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/releases/2025/01/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine
- Vosoughi, S., Safari, A., & Moradifar, S. (2016). Developments in Ukraine and its impact on the international system. Strategy Quarterly, 25(89), 67–88. https://rahbord.csr.ir/article_124601_8cfbe55a3780d20ce80638e8dc3b7e81.pdf .
- Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural realism after the Cold War. International Security, 25(1), 5–41. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2626772 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/016228800560372
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References
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Aqeli, M., & Tisheyar, M. (2024). Internal factors of the fourth collapse in Afghanistan. Quarterly Journal of West Asia, 2(1), 32–66. https://doi.org/10.22034/wasj.2024.433325.1032 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/10648046231217790
Baghi, M., Mehdi V, S., & Ebrahimi, S. (2017). Study and explanation of the relationship between Russia and America based on the theory of neorealism. Quarterly Journal of Political Strategy, 1(3), 1-20. https://www.rahbordsyasi.ir/article_110271.html
Balkhi, M. (2020). American nation building. Kabul: University of Afghanistan.
Boguszm, M., & Rodkiewicz, W. (2025). Three years of war in Ukraine: The Chinese-Russian alliance passes the test. https://doi.org/10.53300/001c.144322 DOI: https://doi.org/10.53300/001c.144322
Dehghani-Firozabadi, S. (2017). Principles of international relations 1. Tehran: Samt Publisher.
Dunn, T., & Brian, C. S. (2013). Realism. In John Bliss & Steve Smith, The globalization of politics: International relations in the modern era (pp. 264–319). Tehran: Abrar Moeser Cultural Institute of International Studies and research.
Edinger, H. (2022). Offensive ideas: Structural realism, classical realism and Putin’s war on Ukraine. International Affairs, 98(6), 1873–1893. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac217 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac217
Fukuyama, F. (2006). The end of history and the last man. New York: Macmillan Press.
Firouzabadi, S.J. (2017). Principles and Foundations of International Relations, Tehran: Samt Publications.
Ghimire, B. (2023). War in Ukraine and its impact on South Asia. New Delhi: Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.
Kapitonenko, M. (2024). How the Russian-Ukrainian war is transforming. Actual Problems of International Relations, 1(158). https://doi.org/10.17721/apmv.2024.158.1.26-35 DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/apmv.2024.158.1.26-35
Kortunov, A. (2022). Restoration, reformation, or revolution? Blueprints for the world order after the Russia–Ukraine conflict. China International Strategy Review, 4, 183–208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-022-00112-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-022-00112-3
Konstantinovsky, A. (2024). China, Russia, and Ukraine: October 2024. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/china-russia-and-ukraine-october-2024
Krastev, I. (2015). Dancing with the bear: How the West should handle its relations with Russia. In E. B. Alcaro, West-Russia relations in light of the Ukraine crisis (pp. 17–31). Roma: Edizioni Nuova Cultura for Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI).
Layne, C. (1993). The unipolar illusion: Why new great powers will rise. International Security, 17(4), 5–51. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2539020
Lo, B., & Has, L. (2024). Between aspiration and reality: Russia in the world (dis)order. Paris: DGRIS (Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy), Ministry of the Armed Forces, under “Russia, Eastern Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asia Observatory (IFRI).”
Mearsheimer, J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics (G. Chegnizadeh, Trans.). Tehran: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Center for Political and International Studies Publications.
Mearsheimer, J. (2022). On the causes and consequences of the Ukraine war. Horizons, Summer 2022, No. 21https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-summer-2022-issue-no.21/the-causes-and-consequences-of-the-ukraine-war
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Ng, K., & Ma, Y. (2024). How is China supporting Russia after it was sanctioned for Ukraine war? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253
Noori A. (2022). Russia and the changing international order: Approach and Practice. Quarterly Journal of World Politics, 11(4), 7–36. https://10.22124/wp.2022.22997.3081
Putin, V. (2014a). Address by the President of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol. Crimea Republic. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603
Putin, V. (2023). Intervention in the plenary session of the 20th anniversary meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club. Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru
Sami-Esfahani, A., & Farahmand, S. (2022). Explaining why and how the Russia-Ukraine war was formed based on the theory of “balance of threat.” Quarterly Journal of International Relations Research, 12(46), 101–128. http://10.22034/irr.2022.352245.2231
Szczudlik, Justyna. (2025). China and Russia Do Not Pose the Same Hard Security Threat to Europe. See: https://chinaobservers.eu/china-and-russia-do-not-pose-the-same-hard-security-threat-to-europe
Simbar, R., & Salehian, T. (2017). Developments in the international system after the Cold War and the new diversity of the balance of power. Bi-Quarterly Journal of Politics and International Relations, 1(1), 33–51. https://doi.org/10.22080/jpir.2017.1691
Stępniewski, T. (2024). The impact of the war with Russia on domestic politics in Ukraine. Polish Political Science Yearbook, 53(3), 131–138. https://doi.org/10.15804/ppsy202433 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15804/ppsy202433
Turhan, O. A. (2023). The rationale behind the Russian invasion of Ukraine: All-or-nothing? Eastern Journal of European Studies, 14(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2023-0209 DOI: https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2023-0209
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. (2025). China’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-position-russias-invasion-ukraine
U.S. Department of State. (2025). U.S. security cooperation with Ukraine. https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/releases/2025/01/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine
Vosoughi, S., Safari, A., & Moradifar, S. (2016). Developments in Ukraine and its impact on the international system. Strategy Quarterly, 25(89), 67–88. https://rahbord.csr.ir/article_124601_8cfbe55a3780d20ce80638e8dc3b7e81.pdf .
Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural realism after the Cold War. International Security, 25(1), 5–41. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2626772 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/016228800560372
Waltz, K. (2015). Theory of international politics (R. A. Arani, Trans.). Tehran: Khabar.
Accepted 2025-11-01
Published 2025-11-01